Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
